Timeline
- 12 June 2017
"Attention Is All You Need" is posted to arXiv
Removes recurrence and convolution, making training parallel across sequence positions
- 23 January 2020
Kaplan et al. publish scaling laws for neural language models
Loss follows power laws in parameters, data and compute across seven orders of magnitude
- 28 May 2020
GPT-3, 175B parameters, applied with no gradient updates
Tasks specified in the prompt; the origin of prompting as a product discipline
- 11 January 2021
Switch Transformer simplifies MoE routing to one expert per token
Up to 7x faster pre-training than T5 at equal compute; trillion-parameter models
- 4 March 2022
InstructGPT: supervised fine-tuning plus RLHF
Alignment becomes a separate training stage vendors can iterate on
- 29 March 2022
Chinchilla corrects the compute-optimal recipe
Parameters and tokens scale together; smaller, longer-trained models win on serving cost
- 30 November 2022
Speculative decoding published
2-3x faster inference with provably identical output distribution
- 13 June 2023
OpenAI ships function calling in gpt-4-0613 and gpt-3.5-turbo-0613
Tool use becomes an API primitive rather than prompt scaffolding
- 15 February 2024
Gemini 1.5 Pro announced with a 1M-token window in limited preview
Long context moves from research to a product tier (128K standard)
- 13 May 2024
GPT-4o merges text, vision and audio into one model
Replaces the separate speech-to-text, LLM and text-to-speech pipeline
- 6 August 2024
Snell et al. on compute-optimal test-time scaling
Adaptive inference compute beats best-of-N by more than 4x in efficiency
- 12 September 2024
OpenAI releases o1-preview and o1-mini
RL-trained chain-of-thought reasoning shipped as a product, with billed reasoning tokens
- 22 October 2024
Anthropic ships computer use in public beta
14.9% on OSWorld screenshot-only against a prior best of 7.8%, and explicitly experimental
- 25 November 2024
Model Context Protocol open-sourced
One protocol for exposing tools, resources and prompts instead of per-source integrations
- 22 January 2025
DeepSeek-R1 paper published
Pure RL with verifiable rewards produces reasoning behaviour that distils into small models
- 9 April 2025
Google announces the Agent2Agent protocol with 50+ partners
Cross-agent delegation over HTTP, SSE and JSON-RPC, positioned as complementary to MCP
- 12 August 2025
Claude Sonnet 4 supports 1M tokens of context
Long context is available and explicitly priced above 200K tokens
The base architecture: parallelism, not intelligence
The transformer paper was submitted on 12 June 2017. Its contribution was subtractive: it removed recurrence and convolution and relied on attention alone. The reported results were 28.4 BLEU on WMT14 English-German and a new single-model state of the art of 41.8 BLEU on English-French after 3.5 days of training on eight GPUs.
The important property was not translation quality. It was that the number of sequential operations became constant rather than growing with sequence position, so all positions could be computed in parallel. That is what made the later scale-ups affordable, and it is the reason every step in this story rests on the same block.
Two follow-ups turned the block into a recipe. OpenAI's 2018 paper showed that generatively pre-training a decoder-only transformer on unlabelled text and then fine-tuning per task improved the state of the art on 9 of 12 benchmarks, beating architectures built for each task. GPT-3, submitted 28 May 2020 at 175 billion parameters, pushed that far enough that tasks could be specified purely in the prompt, with no gradient updates at all.
- Practical consequence: the unit of product work moved from training a model per task to writing a prompt against a general one.
- The prompt became an interface with versioning, testing and regression risk, not a piece of copy.
What we do with this
We treat prompts as versioned artefacts with evaluation sets attached, because a change to a prompt is a change to a system interface.
Scaling laws, and the correction that made small models viable
Kaplan et al., submitted 23 January 2020, found that loss scales as a power law with model size, dataset size and compute across seven orders of magnitude, and that width and depth choices matter little within a wide range. The practical reading at the time was: make the model very large, train on relatively modest data, stop early.
Chinchilla, submitted 29 March 2022, corrected that. For a fixed compute budget, parameters and training tokens should be scaled roughly equally. A 70B model trained on 4x more data outperformed the 280B Gopher at the same compute, reaching 67.5% on MMLU, over seven points above Gopher.
Commercially, this is the correction with the clearest consequence for a product budget. A smaller model trained longer costs less to serve at equal quality, and serving cost is what a product pays every day. Every "small but well-trained" open model since follows this logic.
- Practical consequence: model choice is an economics question, not a leaderboard question.
- Ask what the model costs per request at your traffic, not how many parameters it has.
What we do with this
When we size a model for a client workload, we start from cost per resolved request under expected concurrency, then check whether quality holds.
Alignment became a separate training stage
InstructGPT, submitted 4 March 2022, added two stages after pre-training: supervised fine-tuning on labeller demonstrations, then reinforcement learning from human rankings. Labellers preferred outputs from the 1.3B InstructGPT model to those of the 175B GPT-3, despite roughly 100x fewer parameters.
Constitutional AI, submitted 15 December 2022, replaced most of the human harm-labelling. The model critiques and revises its own outputs against a written list of principles, then a preference model trained on AI judgements drives the reinforcement learning stage, an approach usually written as RLAIF.
For builders, the consequence is structural. Instruction-following, formatting reliability and refusal behaviour are properties of a post-training stage, which is why they can change noticeably between model versions from the same vendor without a new base model. Behaviour you depend on should be pinned to a model version and covered by tests.
- Practical consequence: pin model versions in production and re-run your evaluation set on every vendor update.
- Refusals and tone are tunable behaviours, not fixed properties of "the model".
What we do with this
We keep a small, adversarial evaluation set per client workflow so a vendor version change produces a diff rather than a surprise.
Sparse experts: total parameters stopped predicting cost
Switch Transformer, submitted 11 January 2021, simplified mixture-of-experts routing to a single expert per token, reported up to 7x faster pre-training than T5-Base and T5-Large at equal compute, and pre-trained models up to a trillion parameters. Mixtral 8x7B, submitted 8 January 2024, brought the pattern into open weights: 8 feedforward experts per layer with 2 selected per token, 47B total but 13B active, matching or beating Llama 2 70B and GPT-3.5 on tested benchmarks under Apache 2.0.
DeepSeek-V3, whose technical report was submitted 27 December 2024, was the reference point for scale at the time: 671B total and 37B active, with Multi-head Latent Attention, auxiliary-loss-free load balancing and multi-token prediction, pre-trained on 14.8 trillion tokens in 2.788 million H800 GPU-hours without loss spikes or rollbacks.
The practical consequence is a change in how you read a model card. Total parameters set your memory footprint; active parameters set your compute per token. A 671B model can be cheaper per token than a dense 70B one, and a 47B model can need more GPU memory than its speed suggests.
- Practical consequence: capacity planning needs two numbers, memory footprint and active parameters, not one.
- Open-weight labs have converged on this shape, so self-hosting decisions now turn on memory more than on raw FLOPs.
What we do with this
For self-hosted deployments we size memory against total parameters and throughput against active parameters, then validate both on the target hardware before committing.
Long context: real, useful, and priced
Rotary Position Embedding, submitted 20 April 2021, encodes absolute position as a rotation so that self-attention depends on relative position, giving sequence-length flexibility and a decaying dependency with distance. It became the default positional scheme in open models. Ring Attention, submitted 3 October 2023, distributes long sequences across devices and fully overlaps key-value block communication with blockwise attention, so context length scales with device count without approximation.
Products followed. Google announced Gemini 1.5 Pro on 15 February 2024 with a 1-million-token context window in limited preview and 128,000 tokens as the standard tier; the technical report of 8 March 2024 reported near-perfect retrieval, above 99%, up to at least 10 million tokens across text, video and audio. Claude Sonnet 4 added 1M-token support on 12 August 2025 in public beta.
The pricing is the part product teams miss. Above 200K tokens, Claude Sonnet 4 input is $6 per million tokens against $3 at or below, and output is $22.50 against $15. Long context removes an engineering constraint and adds a budget line.
- Practical consequence: retrieval and caching are still worth building, because a large window is a cost, not a discount.
- Test retrieval quality at the context length you actually plan to use, not at the advertised maximum.
What we do with this
We usually pair a modest context window with retrieval and prompt caching, and reserve very long contexts for cases where the measured accuracy gain justifies the per-token premium.
Inference efficiency: the same hardware got cheaper
Three ideas dominate serving cost. Grouped-Query Attention, submitted 22 May 2023, uses an intermediate number of key-value heads between multi-head and multi-query attention, and uses the same uptraining recipe that converts existing multi-head checkpoints with about 5% of the original pre-training compute. DeepSeek-V2, submitted 7 May 2024, introduced Multi-head Latent Attention, compressing the KV cache into a latent vector: 93.3% less KV cache and 5.76x higher maximum generation throughput compared with DeepSeek 67B.
Speculative decoding, submitted 30 November 2022, is the odd one out because it changes nothing about the model's answers. A small approximation model drafts tokens that the large model verifies in parallel, giving a 2x to 3x speedup on T5-XXL with outputs identical in distribution to standard decoding.
Together these explain why long-context and high-concurrency workloads became affordable without new hardware. They also give you a category of optimisation that carries no quality risk, which is rare enough to be worth naming explicitly when planning a latency budget.
- Practical consequence: separate the speed-ups that preserve output distribution from the ones that trade quality.
- KV cache size, not weight size, is often the limit on how many concurrent sessions a GPU holds.
What we do with this
When latency is the complaint, we look at KV cache pressure and decoding strategy before we consider changing the model or shortening the prompt.
Reasoning: reinforcement learning and compute at answer time
Snell et al., submitted 6 August 2024, showed that adapting inference compute per prompt difficulty, using verifier-guided search and iterative revision, improves efficiency by more than 4x over best-of-N sampling, and can let a smaller model outperform one 14x larger on questions where the base model has a non-trivial chance of success. The finding is that where you spend compute matters as much as how much you spend.
OpenAI released o1-preview and o1-mini on 12 September 2024, trained with large-scale reinforcement learning to reason through a chain of thought, with performance improving both with more RL at training time and with more thinking time at test time. The o1 system card, published 21 December 2024, describes the same training approach and its use for reasoning about safety policies in context.
DeepSeek-R1, submitted 22 January 2025, showed that pure reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards and no supervised reasoning demonstrations produces emergent self-reflection, verification and strategy adaptation, and that a cold-start supervised phase plus distillation transfers those behaviours into smaller models.
The consequence for products is a new cost axis. An answer now has a variable token count and a variable latency that depend on how hard the model finds the question. That has to be budgeted, capped and monitored, the same way you would treat a query that sometimes triggers a full table scan.
- Practical consequence: measure cost per resolved task, not cost per thousand tokens.
- Route by difficulty. Not every request needs a reasoning model, and reasoning models are poor defaults for latency-sensitive paths.
- Distilled small reasoning models are a real option when the task domain is narrow and verifiable.
What we do with this
We route requests between reasoning and non-reasoning models by task type, and cap thinking budgets on user-facing paths so tail latency stays predictable.
Multimodality, tool use, and driving a screen
On 13 June 2023 OpenAI introduced function calling for gpt-4-0613 and gpt-3.5-turbo-0613: developers describe a function signature and the model chooses to emit a JSON object of arguments conforming to it. That turned "the model decides to call a tool" from prompt scaffolding into an API primitive with a schema.
GPT-4o, announced 13 May 2024, merged voice, text and vision into a single model rather than the previous pipeline of separate models, which OpenAI's CTO said had led to longer response times and higher compute cost. Removing the speech-to-text, LLM and text-to-speech hops is what cuts the round-trip latency of a voice interaction, which OpenAI's CTO gave as a reason for merging the pipeline into one model.
Anthropic released computer use in public beta on 22 October 2024 with an upgraded Claude 3.5 Sonnet, which scored 14.9% on OSWorld screenshot-only, and 22.0% with more steps, against a prior best of 7.8%. That was a large relative jump and a low absolute number, and it was labelled experimental. It is a good reminder to read agent benchmarks as both at once.
- Practical consequence: define tools as typed schemas and validate arguments; the model is choosing, not guaranteeing.
- Where a system integration exists, prefer it to screen driving. Computer use is the fallback for systems without APIs.
- Native multimodality is mostly a latency and cost story before it is a capability story.
What we do with this
We build tool interfaces with strict schemas and server-side validation, and we scope computer-use style automation to reversible steps with a human confirmation on anything that writes.
Protocols: how tools get supplied to agents
Anthropic open-sourced the Model Context Protocol on 25 November 2024 as an open standard replacing fragmented per-source integrations with one protocol, with Block and Apollo as early adopters and Zed, Replit, Codeium and Sourcegraph building support. The specification revision dated 2025-06-18 defines stateful JSON-RPC 2.0 connections between hosts, clients and servers: servers expose Resources, Prompts and Tools, while clients may offer Sampling, Roots and Elicitation, with elicitation added in that revision alongside the existing sampling and roots features.
That specification also states that hosts must obtain explicit user consent before invoking any tool. This is worth reading as an architectural requirement rather than a policy note: consent has to live in the host application, which means your product owns the approval surface, not the model vendor.
Google announced the Agent2Agent protocol on 9 April 2025 with over 50 technology partners, built on HTTP, Server-Sent Events and JSON-RPC, and positioned as complementary to MCP. The division of labour is that MCP supplies tools and context to one agent, while A2A coordinates between agents.
So the stack has stabilised into four layers: a post-trained, often sparse model; a structured tool-calling interface; MCP for supplying tools and context; and optionally A2A for cross-agent delegation. That stability is the practical news.
- Practical consequence: put the consent and audit boundary in your own application, where the protocol says it belongs.
- Treat tool output as untrusted input. A protocol standardises transport, not trustworthiness.
What we do with this
We implement MCP servers around a client's existing systems and keep approval, logging and rate limits in the host application, so an agent's actions are reviewable after the fact.
Sources
primary sources, checked on Sep 11, 2026- 01Attention Is All You NeedVaswani et al. (arXiv 1706.03762) · 2017-06-12
- 02Improving Language Understanding by Generative Pre-TrainingOpenAI · 2018-06
- 03Language Models are Few-Shot LearnersBrown et al. (arXiv 2005.14165) · 2020-05-28
- 04Scaling Laws for Neural Language ModelsKaplan et al. (arXiv 2001.08361) · 2020-01-23
- 05Training Compute-Optimal Large Language ModelsHoffmann et al., DeepMind (arXiv 2203.15556) · 2022-03-29
- 06Training language models to follow instructions with human feedbackOuyang et al., OpenAI (arXiv 2203.02155) · 2022-03-04
- 07Constitutional AI: Harmlessness from AI FeedbackBai et al., Anthropic (arXiv 2212.08073) · 2022-12-15
- 08Switch Transformers: Scaling to Trillion Parameter Models with Simple and Efficient SparsityFedus, Zoph, Shazeer (arXiv 2101.03961) · 2021-01-11
- 09Mixtral of ExpertsMistral AI (arXiv 2401.04088) · 2024-01-08
- 10DeepSeek-V3 Technical ReportDeepSeek (arXiv 2412.19437) · 2024-12-27
- 11RoFormer: Enhanced Transformer with Rotary Position EmbeddingSu et al. (arXiv 2104.09864) · 2021-04-20
- 12Ring Attention with Blockwise Transformers for Near-Infinite ContextLiu, Zaharia, Abbeel (arXiv 2310.01889) · 2023-10-03
- 13Our next-generation model: Gemini 1.5Google · 2024-02-15
- 14Gemini 1.5: Unlocking multimodal understanding across millions of tokens of contextGoogle DeepMind (arXiv 2403.05530) · 2024-03-08
- 15Claude Sonnet 4 now supports 1M tokens of contextAnthropic · 2025-08-12
- 16GQA: Training Generalized Multi-Query Transformer Models from Multi-Head CheckpointsAinslie et al. (arXiv 2305.13245) · 2023-05-22
- 17DeepSeek-V2: A Strong, Economical, and Efficient Mixture-of-Experts Language ModelDeepSeek (arXiv 2405.04434) · 2024-05-07
- 18Fast Inference from Transformers via Speculative DecodingLeviathan, Kalman, Matias, Google Research (arXiv 2211.17192) · 2022-11-30
- 19Scaling LLM Test-Time Compute Optimally can be More Effective than Scaling Model ParametersSnell et al. (arXiv 2408.03314) · 2024-08-06
- 20Notes on OpenAI's new o1 chain-of-thought modelsSimon Willison · 2024-09-12
- 21OpenAI o1 System CardOpenAI (arXiv 2412.16720) · 2024-12-21
- 22DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement LearningDeepSeek (arXiv 2501.12948) · 2025-01-22
- 23OpenAI introduces function calling for GPT-4LessWrong linkpost to OpenAI announcement · 2023-06-13
- 24OpenAI's new GPT-4o lets people interact using voice or video in the same modelMIT Technology Review · 2024-05-13
- 25Introducing computer use, a new Claude 3.5 Sonnet, and Claude 3.5 HaikuAnthropic · 2024-10-22
- 26Introducing the Model Context ProtocolAnthropic · 2024-11-25
- 27Model Context Protocol Specification 2025-06-18Model Context Protocol · 2025-06-18
- 28Announcing the Agent2Agent Protocol (A2A)Google Developers Blog · 2025-04-09